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Chalk up one more impact of COVID-19. Less air travel means less weather data feeding into weather forecast models.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) first flagged the 

Between March 3 and March 23 March there was a reduction of 65 percent in weather reports received over Europe. Globally the reduction was about 42 percent.

Less complete weather data into a weather forecast model will impact accuracy as you might expect. The ECMWF estimates a 15 percent reduction in model forecast accuracy in wind and temperature forecasts at flight levels if all aircraft data is removed.

 in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests a measurable reduction in forecast accuracy due to flight reductions during COVID-19.

It should be noted that the study methodology has been questioned by several meteorologists. There are other variables that may be at play in this complex situation.

One area to watch for model forecast differences is in the tropics. The lack of weather data could be causing some big forecast model differences there. There have been some interesting inconsistencies between models lately in the tropical Atlantic. 

It is likely that the reduction in flight-level weather data feeding into forecast models is reducing accuracy somewhat. It’s just difficult to pinpoint the magnitude and spatial distribution of the effects on forecast accuracy.

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Paul Huttner

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Fewer aircraft observations may be impacting forecast model accuracy.

Delta flight from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport flies nearly empty

How much is COVID-19 impacting forecast model accuracy?

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