Tracking overnight thunderstorm chances; fall-like air mass next week

Strong thunderstorms possible after midnight into Friday morning.

Friday evening looks pleasant across most of Minnesota. Another wave of strong to severe storms likely rumbles across the Upper Midwest again late Thursday night into Friday morning.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints an enhanced risk for severe storms across South Dakota and into southwestern tonight into Friday morning.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas through 7 am Saturday
Twin Cities National Weather Service

The most likely scenario shows storms firing in South Dakota this evening and moving across southern Minnesota in the early hours Friday morning. Many of the short-range forecast models suggest storms could reach the Twin Cities area between about 4 and 6 am Friday.

Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model output between 1 am and 7 am Friday.

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NOAA NAM 3 km model 1 am to 7 am Saturday
NOAA NAM 3 km model output 1 am to 7 am Saturday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

September arrives next Tuesday

This weekend looks gloriously sunny and rain-free after the front passes. Highs will be mostly in the pleasant 70s this weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

A stronger cold front blows into Minnesota by Monday. Highs hover in the 60s north and lower 70s south early next week.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Get ready for some bigger seasonal changes ahead. It’s been a great summer!