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Warming trend starts Sunday; luxurious weather next week

Warmer weather lingers through mid to late September?

Swimmers enjoying Deephaven Beach
Swimmers enjoying Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka in September.
Paul Huttner | MPR News 2013

September sent Minnesota a direct message this week. The weather DM reads something like:

“Meteorological summer is over, and you live in Minnesota.”

Minnesota’s cool wet weather pattern lingers through Saturday. Temperatures Friday afternoon hovered in the coolish 50s in southern Minnesota under a gray September sky.

Temperatures Friday afternoon
Temperatures Friday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Warmer pattern ahead

The weather pattern across North America changes next week. The jet stream lifts northward across Canada. Milder breezes blow into the Upper Midwest.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm September 19
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. Sept. 19
NOAA

High temperatures next week reach the balmy 70s across most of Minnesota. Highs in the 80s favor western Minnesota but may ooze as far east as Brainerd and the Twin Cities by mid-week.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Mild bias into late September?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model favors milder than average temperatures in late September. Keep in mind we don’t really place high in trust this and other models this far out for specific, day to day temperature accuracy. But they do usually latch on to trends.

I don’t take the string of 70s and 80s depicted below as gospel. But the trend for milder than average temperatures after about September 20 is worth paying attention to.

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Twin Cities
NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Twin Cities
NOAA via Meteostar

A temperature range between 51 and 85 in the Twin Cities between September 19 and 25? That would be notable, and welcome for many if it’s even close.

Mild into early October?

NOAA’s week 3-4 temperature outlook also slightly favors warmer than average temperatures as we turn the corner into…O…Oc…October. There. I said it.

NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA

Summerlike weather may stick around a while this September.

Stay tuned.