Summer pattern lingers this week, temperatures finally crash next week

Wednesday night thunder up north? Much colder next week.

Want to know when major temperatures changes are coming? Watch the jet stream patterns across North America.

Summer-like warmth lingers across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this week. Highs in the 80s pushed as far north as Bemidji Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

It was 88 degrees in Madison in western Minnesota. In case you were wondering, 82 degrees is the average high for Aug. 10 in the Twin Cities.

Smoke returns Wednesday

The wind trajectory Wednesday appears likely to push thicker smoke aloft back over Minnesota. Chalk up yet another smoky September day blotting out the blue sky.

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NOAA HRRR model vertically integrated smoke product
NOAA HRRR model vertically integrated smoke product for Wednesday afternoon.
NOAA

Wednesday night thunder up north?

A frontal system is likely to trigger scattered thunderstorms across north-central Minnesota Wednesday evening. The Twin Cities could be on the southern end of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning.

Here’s NOAA’s HRRR model output Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

NOAA HRRR model between 7 pm Wednesday and 7 am Thursday
NOAA HRRR model between 7 pm Wednesday and 7 am Thursday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Unseasonably warm through Friday

The upper air pattern across North America keeps warm air over Minnesota through Friday.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm September 25
Upper air forecast map for 7 pm September 25
NOAA

Highs in the 80s once again cover much of Minnesota Wednesday and again Friday.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Pattern change next week

A sharp trough of low pressure will dive down across the Upper Midwest next week.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm September 29
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. Sept. 29
NOAA

The dip brings a shot of much cooler air into Minnesota starting on Monday. The inbound air mass looks about 20 degrees cooler than today, with highs in the 50s north and low 60s in southern Minnesota by next Tuesday.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Much of northern Minnesota has already seen a few nights of freezing temperatures this month. There may be more frosty nights next week up north.

Right now I don’t think a freeze is likely in the Twin Cities area through at least early October.

Stay tuned.