Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Oct-ember breeze this week; Twin Cities frost threat Friday morning

Milder temperatures return next week?

Hoar frost on pines in December.
Hoar frost on pines in December.
Paul Huttner | MPR News 2014

Welcome to our latest case of Minnesota weather whiplash.

Last week felt more like early August across parts of Minnesota. The Twin Cities logged eight straight days above 70 degrees, and three days in the 80s.

Last Wednesday’s temperature map looked more July than late September across Minnesota.

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon
Temperatures Wednesday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Temperatures peaked at a July-like 85 degrees in the Twin Cities last Friday.

Fast forward to this week. Our chilly Canadian air mass is about 30 degrees colder across much of Minnesota compared to last week.

Temperatures Monday afternoon
Temperatures Monday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Jet stream shift

When it comes to big weather changes in Minnesota and elsewhere, it’s all about the jet stream. Check out the deep trough diving into the Upper Midwest this week.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm October 2
Upper air forecast map for 7 pm October 2
NOAA

That means highs will hover in the 50s across southern Minnesota with 40s up north this week.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

Friday frost threat

Northern Minnesota has already seen freezing temperatures several nights this month. So far the Twin Cities area has escaped a freeze.

Friday and Saturday mornings bring another chance of freezing temperatures to the Twin Cities suburbs.

Forecast low temperatures Friday morning
Forecast low temperatures Friday morning
NOAA

I think the inner urban metro core will probably escape a freeze once again, but it may be close.

Milder next week

The jet stream shifts to a milder pattern once again next week.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm October 8
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. Oct. 8
NOAA

Forecast models suggest more 60s for Minnesota, with a shot at 70 degrees again later next week.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 8 to 14-day temperature outlook favors warmer than average air moving into Minnesota again in October.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA

One model suggests temperatures near 80 again around Oct. 11-12. Color me skeptical on more 80s until I see stronger trends, but I don’t think we’re done with 70s in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota yet.

Stay tuned.