First flakes of the season for parts of Minnesota this weekend?
Twin Cities accumulation unlikely, but the coming cold snap should get our attention.
Here we go.
The atmosphere takes a sharp turn for the colder later this week across Minnesota. Widespread freezing temperatures cover most of Minnesota by early Friday morning.
That means the atmosphere will be cold enough for the season’s first snowflakes if any precipitation falls.
A couple of forecast models suggest the atmosphere could squeeze out a little rain or a few snowflakes this weekend. The European and Canadian models seem to latch onto a low-pressure area across northern Minnesota by Saturday. This could bring a mix of rain and snowflakes.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
The Canadian model is more aggressive and brings potential accumulating snow to far northern Minnesota this weekend. It also suggests a band of accumulating snow across far southern Minnesota and Iowa. It should be noted that this model is an outlier solution right now.
Twin Cities flakes?
Further south, the atmosphere looks drier. But the Twin Cities NWS office is already slipping the S-word into the long-term forecast discussion for this weekend.
A slow moving upper level low will gradually move southeast from central Canada and break down the upper level flow by early Saturday, with a series of weak shortwaves giving us enough forcing to squeeze out some light precipitation. We could see some snowflakes falling out of this with cold temperatures during the AM hours of both Saturday and Sunday, turning into drizzle or sprinkling rain showers during the day on Saturday, with the forcing and precipitation departing the area during the day on Sunday. While this could end up being our first snowflakes of the year, no accumulation is currently expected and even a dusting would be a surprise given how dry conditions will be due to a few days of northwest flow beforehand. Likewise, conditions could end up completely dry as there is not an overall consensus within model solutions at this point.
The average date for the first inch of snow in the Twin Cities is November 16. But is has occurred as early as Sept. 26, (1942) and as late as Jan. 21. (2005)
Here’ more on fall snowfall stats from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.
First one-inch snowfall
-----------------------
Median (1884-2015) November 16
earliest (1884-2015) September 26, 1942
latest (1884-2015) January 9, 1945
First one-inch snow depth
-------------------------
Median (1903-2015) November 22
earliest (1903-2015) October 13, 1959
latest (1903-2015) January 1, 1913
Stay tuned.