Saturday snow up north: Forecast models coming into slightly better consensus
Several inches of snow are likely Saturday across northern Minnesota.
Here we go.
The first significant accumulating snows of the season appear likely to fall Saturday for many northern Minnesota locations. Forecast models are coming into better consensus Saturday regarding the track and snowfall zone from a low-pressure system. There are still a few model differences on the precise location of the accumulating snow band.
Here’s a breakdown of the most likely forecast scenarios for snow Saturday. We’re now inside the 48-hour window where forecast model skill and human preparations best align for optimal forecast decisions.
The system
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A fairly well-developed October low-pressure system with a central pressure around 1,000 millibars will track across Minnesota Saturday. The American and European models favor a track from South Dakota over the Twin Cities area by midday Saturday. The Canadian model is a bit further north. All models paint an accumulating snow zone somewhere across the northern half of Minnesota Saturday.
Here’s the Canadian model solution.
Snowfall totals
The American and Canadian models paint a general 2” to 5” snow zone across northern Minnesota by late Saturday night. The American GFS model suggests a heavier snow zone on the hill above the North Shore. It seems to be factoring in some lake-enhancement and additional orographic lift. The GFS suggests 6”+ along the North Shore ridges.
The European model is further north with the accumulating snow zone. It lays out a general 3” to 6” swath from near Grand Forks, through International Falls, Ely, and the BWCA.
A few flakes in the metro?
The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will ride the milder southern side of the system Saturday. Highs will make the 50s across southern Minnesota. Milder air lingers just south of Minnesota. A fall color drive or a round of golf in Ames or Des Moines Saturday anyone?
The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota could see a few snowflakes Saturday night and Sunday after the cold front blows through. I do not expect any accumulations across southern Minnesota.