Studies: Mild dry Election Day forecast may benefit Democratic turnout
Studies show Republicans historically benefit from bad weather on Election Day
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Five days.
That’s how much time is left until the most anticipated election day in most of our lifetimes.
Early voting numbers show that voter turnout is the highest on record for many states. For example, Texas has already reached 94.1 percent of the total votes recorded in 2016.
Election day weather can affect turnout
As early voting wraps up in many states, the focus for turnout turns to Election Day. And studies have shown weather is historically a factor in Election Day turnout. And bad weather has favored Republicans by lowering turnout more among Democratic voters.
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This 2007 study from The Journal of Politics finds that rain and snow significantly reduce voter participation. It also finds that Republicans benefit from bad weather on Election Day.
More precisely, for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote. For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate’s vote share increases by approximately .6 percent.
The study also concludes election day weather can be one of many possible determinative factors in close races like 1960 and 2000.
In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans.
In close elections, the weather becomes one of many factors that can be determinative.
Election Day 2020 forecast: Mild and dry
The weather maps for Election Day 2020 continue to favor dry and mild weather across most of the U.S. next Tuesday. A few rain showers are likely in the Pacific Northwest. Most of the rest of the country looks dry on Election Day.
The maps also favor mild weather overall for next Tuesday. Highs in the 50s and 60s across most of the U.S are likely, with warmer weather in the typically milder south and southwest states.
Overall, the weather picture next Tuesday appears to favor a continued heavy voter turnout pattern on Election Day 2020.
