Temps rebound nicely this week; updated Election Day forecast
Next cold front is about 8 days away
The Sunday high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was a chilly 39 degrees. That’s 11 degrees colder than our average Nov. 1 Twin Cities high of 50 degrees.
The upper-air flow will transition from northwesterly to westerly early this week, and that will give us warmer temperatures that will linger for several days.
Highs on Monday will be in the 40s in northern Minnesota, with mainly 50s in central and southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin:
Southwestern Minnesota will see some lower 60s.
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Election Day weather
If you’re voting this Tuesday, the weather will be very cooperative.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model isn’t showing any precipitation in Minnesota or western Wisconsin Tuesday or Tuesday evening:
Minnesota and western Wisconsin temperatures will be mainly in the 30s around sunrise on Tuesday, then temps warm nicely … topping out in the 50s and 60s in most locations Tuesday afternoon:
Southwestern and west-central Minnesota may see some lower 70s.
You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Election Day weather history
The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled a nice history of Election Day weather in Minnesota. Here’s an excerpt:
The warmest Presidential Election Day since 1892 was in 2008 when the mercury climbed to 71 degrees on a warm, breezy afternoon. The coldest Presidential Election Day high temperature in the Twin Cities was 1936 with a high of 28 degrees and a bit of light snow. The weather on that election day statewide was on the heels of a winter storm that struck western, central, and northern parts of the state. St. Cloud had 7.5 inches of snow on November 2, with light snow continuing on election day. It didn't seem to effect voter turnout with 70% of the eligible voters heading to the polls.
In recent years, voters for the presidential contest of 1992 had to put up with the aftermath of an early season snowfall that brought back memories of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, although on a much smaller scale. The heaviest snowfall was in northern Minnesota with Duluth seeing 8.6 inches on November 2nd and 5.3 inches on the 3rd (Election Day). International Falls had 8.1 inches on the 2nd and 2.4 inches on the 3rd. In central Minnesota, St. Cloud had 6.2 inches on the 2nd and 1.2 inches on the 3rd. In the south, Rochester had 2.1 inches on the 2nd and only .1 (one tenth of an inch on the 3rd) 73% of eligible voters turned out on that wintry November Day.
Our most recent snowfall in the Twin Cities on a Presidential Election Day was in 2000, when we tallied 1.2 inches of snow.
Warm temps linger for several days
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday, followed by upper 60s on Friday. We have a shot at upper 60s again on Saturday. One forecast model shows some clouds and rain showers by Sunday afternoon, with a high in the mid 60s.
Temps may plummet on Monday Nov. 9 and cool temps may then linger through the middle of November. The temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency toward below-normal temps in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Nov. 9 through Nov. 15:
We’ll see if that changes.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.