Western, central and northern Minnesota under windy, dry weather conditions 

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Minnesota weather and forecast models can change quickly in November.

The numerical forecast models we use everyday crank out various solutions for the next few days up to about two weeks. Usually, there’s a rhythm to the evolution of weather patterns. We can see pattern changes evolving. That gives us a sense of when a milder than average November — like this one  — may evolve into a pattern that can produce wintry storms. 

November forecast models can shift quickly, and pick up on a wave that’s just now coming into focus. 

Keep an eye on next Tuesday. The forecast models are picking up on a possible storm wave that has the potential to be just a minor rain or snowmaker. Or it could evolve into something more significant.

Ron Trenda did a good job laying out the weekend forecast a couple of hours ago. 

 if you’re looking for weekend forecast details. I’ll take time in this post to focus a little more on next Tuesday’s potential weather system.

An upper air wave will plow into the Pacific Northwest by Monday. This system will likely spin up a low-pressure system across the Midwest by next Tuesday. There are currently big forecast model differences in how this system may evolve.

The Canadian model develops a moderate low-pressure system in Kansas with a mixed precipitation shield across Iowa next Tuesday. 

The American GFS model develops a stronger system further north, and suggests a widespread mix of rain and snow across Minnesota Tuesday.

This system looks potentially just cold enough for snow across parts of Minnesota Tuesday. But again, current forecast models differ on how much, and where. 

We’re still 5 days away from this possible system. So here’s the usual caveat forecast warning label, don’t focus on precise snowfall totals here. I’m simply posting these as insight into the forecast process and 

solutions several days before a possible system.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model suggests a plowable snow event for a big chunk of the Upper Midwest. 

The Canadian model suggests just a dusting in the Twin Cities with a couple of inches farther north. 

Even after 30-plus years of almost daily weather forecasting, I still love the forecast process. My blood pumps a little faster when a new forecast model run comes in. Yes Minnesota, I’m a weather geek.

My process is to do my own forecast first, then check other sources like NOAA/NWS to see if I may have missed something, or if another weather expert has a different read. 

My read today of the Twin Cities NWS Forecast Office forecast discussion confirms my level of uncertainty and watchfulness about next Tuesday’s potential system. 

There will likely be some rain or snow next Tuesday across the Upper Midwest including Minnesota. But the system in question is literally just emerging from Asia into the western Pacific today.

There is still great uncertainty about how a possible system will evolve across the Upper Midwest next Tuesday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Forecast models picking up on a potential weather system next week.

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Huttner, Paul

Canadian model output for 6 am Tuesday, November 24

Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA GFS model snowfall output for Tuesday, November 24

Canadian model snowfall output for Tuesday, November 24

Forecast model chaos theory: Rain or snow chance emerging next Tuesday?

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