Wintry mix Tuesday; mild bias overall into December?

Medium-range forecast products continue to skew milder than average into December.

Grand Marais Harbor
A November sunset over Grand Marais Harbor on the north shore of Lake Superior.
Jay Gabler/MPR

No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! –
November! -Thomas Hood

November is notoriously gray in Minnesota. Climatologically November is our cloudiest month of the year on average with just 39 percent of possible sunshine.

But November 2020 has been a rare sunny and warm November for much of Minnesota. By my count, 14 of 23 days in Minnesota have seen abundant sunshine this month. That’s about 60 percent of days with plenty of sun. I can’t recall a November this sunny in my lifetime.

November is also running five degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities, and above average across the entire region.

Temperature departure from average this month
Temperature departure from average this month
Midwest Regional Climate Center

Wintry mix Tuesday

A light wintry mix visits most of Minnesota Tuesday. Here’s the latest view from the Duluth National Weather Service office.

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Snowfall forecast for northern Minnesota Tuesday
Snowfall forecast for northern Minnesota Tuesday
Duluth National Weather Service

A little more snow is likely from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin.

Snowfall forecast for southeast Minnesota Tuesday
Snowfall forecast for southeast Minnesota Tuesday
NWS La Crosse, WI

Mild bias into December?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s suite of medium-range forecast products continues to skew milder than average into December.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

Check out the week 3 to 4 temperature forecast product.

NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA

The trend for NOAA’s CFS2 monthly temperature forecasts have been running consistently milder than average through December. Recent runs suggest a large potential area of relative warmth that could be 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F) warmer than average in southern Canada and the northern U.S. in December.

NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook for December 2020
NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook for December 2020
NOAA

Keep in mind that a mild monthly forecast doesn’t rule out potential cold snaps. It simply favors overall monthly temperatures ending up warmer than average. Also don’t focus on the magnitude of the warmth, as much as the trend.

Stay tuned.