Warm blob: NOAA temperature outlooks strongly favor a mild December in Minnesota
Much-above average temperatures in December?
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Thanksgiving weekend means we’re in the home stretch of meteorological fall. Now we head for meteorological winter on Dec. 1.
We head into Thanksgiving weekend with November temperatures running 2 to 5 degrees warmer than average in Minnesota. Anomalous warmth covers the entire Midwest this month.
December mild bias?
Sunday’s cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average as we move into the first days of December. The average high in the Twin Cities on Dec. 1 is 32 degrees.
But there are already signs of another warmup the weekend of Dec. 5-6.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 6 to 10-day outlook skews heavily toward milder than average temperatures across the Upper Midwest.
NOAA’s 8 to 14-day outlook continues the trend.
And NOAA’s week 3 to 4 temperature outlook shows persistence well into mid-December.
Finally, NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS2) favors a strong mild bias for December with a big blob favoring milder than average across central Canada and the north-central U.S.
The deep reddish-brown area suggests a monthly temperature departure of 4 degrees Celsius or 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Keep in mind, we can still get some cold spells and finish a month milder than average overall.
These medium-range temperature outlooks are not as statistically accurate as short-range temperature forecasts. But it’s interesting to note there has been great consistency favoring a milder than average December for Minnesota.
Stay tuned.
