Happy meteorological winter: Mild bias continues; no significant snow in sight yet
Minnesota's weather cards still coming up milder than average for early December.
Happy meteorological winter Minnesota.
December 1 marks the start of meteorological winter. The months of December through February are the 3 coldest months of the year climatologically in Minnesota.
The weather maps this week continue to come up milder than average. We’re not talking heat wave here, but temperatures skew slightly above average again this week. And there is a notable lack of snow and cold on the weather maps for the next two weeks.
Quiet maps
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The surface weather maps look unusually quiet and mild for the first week of December. A storm swirling through the Great Lakes is dumping snow. The storm track steers the next system south of Minnesota by midweek. Minnesota rides a quiet high-pressure zone in-between weather systems.
Look for tranquil, mostly sunny days this week.
Milder than average
The average high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities by Wednesday are 32 and 17. Highs will run in the 30s north to low 40s south this week. That’s about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than average for early December.
Mild through next week?
I’m always leery of rapid pattern changes this time of year. The maps could pivot to a snowy, colder pattern any day. But so far, the medium-range maps continue to push quiet and mild weather overall into mid-December.
No significant snow in sight?
Again, never say never for snow in Minnesota in December. But the medium-range forecast maps continue to keep Minnesota mostly dry for the next 1-2 weeks.
On Monday’s run, the European (ECMWF) model keeps Minnesota dry through December 10.
The American GFS model agrees. I keep looking for December’s big weather shoe (boot) to drop the first big snow. So far, I don’t see it.
Stay tuned.