Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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File this medium-range forecast post under plausible, but not a sure thing. 

 through most of next week.  But a couple of recent forecast model runs have hinted at a possible pattern change late next week into the weekend of December 12-13.

It starts with a dip in the jet stream aloft around December 12. This type of pattern aloft is conducive to producing storms in the Upper Midwest.

So far it’s just one forecast model, but a couple runs of NOAA’s GFS model have hinted at solutions that bring a possible winter storm into the Upper Midwest around Saturday, December 12.

Again, it’s too far out to place significant confidence on these few possible forecast solutions 10 days out. But this type of pattern is close to what we would expect as we move into mid-December. So in my view, it’s worth a mention now and keeping an eye on later. 

Again, we’re talking about relatively low confidence here two weeks out. But NOAA’s GFS seems to be sputtering onto a pattern change that I’ve been looking for for a few weeks now.

It suggests the notion of much colder air pouring south from Canada in mid-December. Don’t take the map below literally, but if the pattern shifts this way the chances of our first sub-zero shot may be growing around mid-month. Focus on the trend and not the specifics. 

In the next few days, I’ll be closely watching the medium-range upper air forecast maps to see if the notion of a stormy and colder La Niña type pattern emerges. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Some forecast models suggest snow  and colder weather in about 10 days.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm December 12

NOAA

NOAA GFS model for 6 am Saturday, December 12 

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA GFS temperature output for 6 am Tuesday, December 15

The other shoe? Hints of colder air and snow late next week

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