Mild bias continues; Friday storm track trending south

Heavy snow tracking toward southern Iowa and Chicago?

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model (ECMWF) snowfall output through Sunday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Here’s a quick reality check. The average high and low for the Twin Cities today are 29 and 15.

Keep that in mind as you enjoy temperatures in the 40s, and possibly 50s through Thursday. Highs Wednesday push well into the 50s across southwest MInnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Friday storm tracking south

The forecast models have been hinting at a possible Midwest storm for about a week. The latest model runs have locked on to a southern solution.

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This morning’s Canadian model run agrees with the American GFS model, tracking the system south of Minnesota.

Canadian model Friday and Saturday
Canadian model Friday and Saturday
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

The Europen model tracks the system toward Chicago Saturday, also keeping precipitation south of Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) output for noon Saturday
European model (ECMWF) output for noon Saturday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Chicago Bull’s Eye?

If you are planning to travel this weekend to southern Iowa, Chicago, or Michigan the chances for heavy snow are growing. The European model lays out a heavy snow band of 6” to 12”+ from southern Iowa through Chicago into Michigan.

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model (ECMWF) snowfall output through Sunday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Stay tuned as we watch for possible changes in the storm track.