Major snowstorm heads east; Weather maps in flux for Christmas week

A mild start gives way to cold and snow chances?

Winter storm warnings are flying for a big chunk of the northeastern U.S. as a major winter storm winds up.

A potent low-pressure system will intensify as it winds up along the east coast Wednesday and Thursday. The system will produce heavy snow as you move inland, with rain and mixed precipitation closer to the coast.

NOAA GFS model Wednesday into Thursday
NOAA GFS model Wednesday into Thursday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The center of the low-pressure track will be critical in determining how much snow falls in locations like Philadelphia and New York City. A westward track will limit snowfall totals near the coast. A slight eastward nudge will bring heavier snow to places like New York City.

Snowfall projection for NYC area
Snowfall projection for NYC area
NWS New York

NOAA’s GFS model cranks out a foot of snow for many locations, with more than 2 feet of snow across parts of northeast Pennsylvania.

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Weather maps in flux for Christmas week

The weather maps for Minnesota seem to be in flux for Christmas week. The week likely begins on mild notes. But there is a chance for snow by Wednesday in northern Minnesota, and possibly the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

The Canadian and European models paint a potential system by mid-week next week.

European model (ECMWF) forecast next Wednesday, December 23
European model (ECMWF) forecast next Wednesday, Dec. 23.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

If the pattern evolves as I’m seeing today, that could bring a chance for snow followed by much colder air as we head toward Christmas. This far off view is beyond the range for high confidence, but the European model suggests temperatures hovering a few degrees either side of zero in the Twin Cities by Christmas morning. Temperatures on this outlook could hit minus 20 across northern Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 6 am December 25
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 6 a.m. Dec. 25.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

We still may have a chance for a white (and frigid) Christmas in Minnesota.

Stay tuned.