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Tracking cases in Minnesota

Daily analysis on COVID-19 in MN 

It’s a day every COVID-19 watcher hoped would never arrive.

, the state has marked an awful milestone — more than 5,000 total deaths — on Christmas Eve.

November and December were dreadful months, with some 2,500 deaths reported. That’s more than half of all the deaths in the pandemic in fewer than two months. 

At the same time, there’s reason for guarded optimism. Other key COVID-19 metrics continue to offer definite signs of hope. New daily caseloads are retreating from their late November, early December peaks.

The Health Department on Thursday posted 1,917 newly confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases, part of more than a week of relatively moderate new caseloads. An expected surge from Thanksgiving gatherings hasn’t surfaced.

The number of active, confirmed cases in Minnesota is about 23,000. Over the last 7 days, Minnesota has averaged 2,200 new cases per day.

 the proportion of positive results to total tests

 — was a small 3.7 percent on Thursday, the lowest daily rate since Oct. 4. But a more telling measure — the seven-day rolling average positivity rate — was 5.3 percent. Health officials consider any positivity rate over 5 percent to be concerning.

What does a COVID-19 ‘positivity rate’ really mean?

Understanding COVID-19 case rates over time

Testing volumes have remained flat all week, with no surge in testing ahead of the Christmas holiday on Friday, as the state saw in the days before Thanksgiving in November.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, the agency said 1,073 people remained in the hospital with COVID-19, with 238 needing intensive care. The seven-day trend of new hospital admissions fell to its lowest level in seven weeks.

Hospital admission rates continued to plummet on Thursday, but aren’t yet back to levels before the late fall surge.

Thursday’s data report brought Minnesota’s confirmed COVID-19 pandemic total to 404,403. In about 94 percent of those cases, people have recovered to the point that they no longer need to be isolated.

Even as they applaud the improving picture on caseloads and hospitalizations, state public health leaders have continued to warn that conditions could change dramatically if people don’t stay vigilant as year-end holidays approach. 

They’re imploring people to wear masks in indoor gathering spaces, socially distance and take other measures to help curb the spread of COVID-19.

“We’re still in a situation where there’s just a lot of virus circulating in the community,” Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said Wednesday. 

Malcolm praised Minnesotans for heeding the guidance on public gatherings and social distancing and said vaccinations will help even more. But she cautioned that it doesn’t mean Minnesota can let down its guard.

The state must still take precautions “to help the vaccine do its job,” Malcolm said. “This is important not just to protect yourself and your immediately family but protecting your neighbors or people in your community you don’t even know.”

7 questions, answered

Minnesota's vaccine distribution plan

250K COVID vaccine doses in Minnesota by year-end

People in their 20s still make up the age bracket with the state’s largest number of confirmed cases  — more than 77,000 since the pandemic began, including more than 41,000 among people ages 20 to 24.

The number of high school-age youth confirmed with the disease has also grown, with more than 31,000 total cases among those ages 15 to 19 since the pandemic began. 

Although less likely to feel the worst effects of the disease and end up hospitalized, experts worry youth and young adults will spread it to grandparents and other vulnerable populations. 

It’s especially concerning because people can have the coronavirus and spread COVID-19 when they don’t have symptoms. 

MN critical care doctors sounding the alarm

In Minnesota and its neighbors in Upper Midwest

Central and western Minnesota drove much of the increase in new cases over the past two months, while Hennepin and Ramsey counties showed some of the slowest case growth in the state.

Cases continue to fall statewide, but still haven’t dipped down to their levels before the state’s COVID-19 surge that hit in November and early December. Controlling for testing volume, the case positivity rate is falling in almost every county in Minnesota. Even the state’s most populous, Hennepin and Ramsey counties, have had a positivity rate below 5 percent over the past week.

After a spike in confirmed cases through much of November and early December, all regions of the state have seen new case numbers fall. 

Hot spots continue to pop up in rural counties relative to their population.

Here’s what to do

If you test positive for the coronavirus this winter

Caseloads still heaviest among people of color

In Minnesota and across the country, COVID-19 has hit 

communities of color disproportionately hard

 in both cases and deaths. That’s been especially true for

Even as new case counts ease from their peak a few weeks ago, the data shows people of color continue to be hit hardest.

, together with deeply rooted health and economic disparities, have hampered efforts to boost testing among communities of color, officials say, especially among unauthorized immigrants who fear their personal information may be used to deport them.

How COVID is disproportionately hitting Minnesota’s Latino community

Similar trends have been seen among Minnesota’s Indigenous residents. Counts among Indigenous people

Gov. Tim Walz on Tuesday said the wheels are turning now on initial plans to vaccinate Minnesotans against COVID-19 and the process is working largely as expected.

Minnesota began injecting health care workers last week with the Pfizer vaccine after the firm received emergency federal approval. The state's first supply contained 46,800 doses; another 33,150 are expected to follow.

About 94,800 doses of vaccine produced by another company, Moderna, are expected this week, with much of that arriving in the next 24 hours, Walz told reporters. A second Moderna supply with about 32,900 doses is anticipated next week along with 42,900 more from Pfizer.

 by the end of the month. Beyond that, things are still in flux.

The Moderna doses, which don’t require the kind of deep cold storage required for the Pfizer vaccine, are being scheduled now for residents and workers of long-term care facilities across the state.

Officials say 11,578 people in Minnesota had been vaccinated as of midmorning Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Kris Ehresmann, the state’s infectious disease director, said some Moderna shipments set for three local public health operations and one skilled nursing site have been delayed, and the winter storm is complicating delivery plans.

The state’s goal, she added, “is to make sure everyone who wants to be vaccinated has access to the vaccine …  but we can only be successful when we have vaccine in the state.”

The state health department will not release its daily COVID-19 data on Friday, due to the Christmas Day holiday.

On Saturday, MDH will release the data that would, on a typical week, been released on Friday.

On Sunday, the department will release two days worth of data, catching up to the postponed release on Christmas Day.

Walz extends pay cut for himself and his chief of staff

Gov. Tim Walz said Wednesday he’s adding six months to a 10 percent pay cut that he and his chief of staff are taking during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In April, Walz imposed a pay cut for himself and agency commissioners to save the state money and show solidarity with people struggling due to restrictions he imposed. Those were set to expire next week.

A new executive order leaves the 10 percent pay cut in place for only two people: Walz and chief of staff Chris Schmitter. Walz earns $127,000 a year; Schmitter makes about $140,000. The Cabinet-level pay will return to prior levels. 

Walz said agency heads are working longer hours to manage the pandemic. Minnesota’s budget situation has also improved.

Walz also signed an executive order allowing out-of-state pharmacists to help administer the COVID-19 vaccine because of staffing strains among Minnesota pharmacists. 

The state Department of Health is reminding Minnesotans that all community testing sites will be closed Thursday and Friday, as well as on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day next week. 

The agency said people seeking tests through clinics or hospitals should confirm available testing hours.  

Gov. Tim Walz has adjusted his coronavirus restrictions to allow indoor pools to reopen early in the new year.

The Executive Council ratified the change Wednesday to align it with the resumption of other group fitness and youth sports reboots. 

“The purpose of this executive order is to reopen pools for a narrow range of activities in compliance with industry guidance, including lap swim, lessons and organizing sports to begin on Jan. 4, 2021," Assistant Health Commissioner Daniel Huff explained. 

Walz allowed health clubs to reopen last weekend with precautions. But pools had been left out. 

Before adjourning the meeting, the governor indicated there would be no more changes to COVID-19 gathering and business restrictions before 2021.

Sauk Centre offers COVID-19 hospital workers a show of support:

 Last month, the CentraCare health system in central Minnesota announced it would shift its hospital in Sauk Centre to caring almost exclusively for patients with COVID-19. It was a big change for health care workers and residents of the close-knit town.

MSU Mankato addresses hunger on campus with free groceries now, food pantry in the spring:

 As COVID-19 continues to exacerbate the needs of people in Minnesota, including food access and hunger, those problems can also be found on college campuses. At Minnesota State University, Mankato, the college is stepping in to feed its students.

Minnesotans plan for expected federal relief payment: 

Most Minnesotans are expecting more COVID-19 relief money from the federal government, even as President Donald Trump floats the possibility of vetoing the stimulus package congressional Republicans and Democrats finally settled on. The president says direct payments should be more than three times larger than the $600 the House and Senate came up with.

One Minnesota district’s response to student struggles: 

In a school year that has forced shutdowns and virtual lessons, engagement is faltering and the number of failing grades is doubling. But Northfield Public Schools is experimenting with an extra effort to help  students and families to make sure learning is still happening.

'Step in the right direction' as Minnesota nursing home residents get first vaccine doses:

 The first residents and staff at a St. Cloud nursing home and a Prairie Island Indian Community assisted living facility have received their initial doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. It’s good news for long-term care facilities, which have been hardest hit by the virus. Sixty-five percent of the state's 4,896 deaths have been among long-term care residents.

Data in these graphs are based on the Minnesota Department of Health's cumulative totals released at 11 a.m. daily. You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at the 

How it compares with other diseases in 5 charts

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

Minnesota and the Upper Midwest

Minnesota News

Health

NewsPartners

COVID-19

MPR News Staff

Author

Almost nine months to the day Minnesota reported its first COVID-19 death, the state has marked an awful milestone — more than 5,000 total deaths.

A woman in PPE stands at a table with medical equipment.

Paul Middlestaedt for MPR News file

New COVID-19 related deaths reported in Minnesota each day

David H. Montgomery | MPR News

Active, confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota

New COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota

New Minnesota COVID-19 cases by age, adjusted for population

MN counties with the fastest per-capita growth in COVID-19 cases

Dec. 24 update on COVID-19 in MN: State crosses grim Christmas Eve threshold of 5K deaths

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