Potentially bitter subzero cold on the way in mid-January?

Weather forecasting is usually an interesting mix of short-term forecast details and larger-scale longer-term patterns. This week is a good example.

We’re focused on finer short-term forecast details regarding freezing fog in eastern Minnesota and a wintry mix in southwest Minnesota overnight.

But the longer-range forecast maps look interesting and decidedly colder by the end of next week. And while finer-scale details like fog and localized precipitation are stealthy on medium-range forecast maps, they show much higher skill levels with bigger temperature trends.

Jet stream buckles next week

Tuesday’s upper air forecast maps continued Monday’s theme of driving a significant low-pressure trough southward into the central United States late next week.

This pattern usually brings a shot of subzero air to Minnesota in winter. The 16-day GFS temperature outlook continues the trend of subzero air between about Jan. 17-21.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is picking up on the trends that suggest temperatures returning to near average for eastern Minnesota during the 8-14 day outlook period.

NOAA’s 18Z GFS model run Tuesday afternoon cranks out some numbing cold readings in the minus 20s by the morning of Jan. 16.

Its should be noted that forecast models this far out often overestimate the magnitude of cold waves two weeks out. It should also be noted that temperatures in Siberia have reached the minus 50s and that air mass is likely to cross the Polar regions into North America eventually this winter.

It still appears this may be a glancing, transitory shot of cold air. NOAA’s week 3 to 4 outlook and CFS2 product for February favor milder than average temperatures overall.

Our La Niña-flavored winter has yet to deliver sustained cold for Minnesota.

Stay tuned.