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January thaw: Highs in the 40s likely by Wednesday

Winter in Minnesota is running about 6 degrees warmer than average so far

Welcome to Winter Lite.

Our milder than average weather pattern continues into midweek across Minnesota. Highs Monday again pushed into the 30s for many locations. Temperatures surged into the 50s in the upstream air mass in South Dakota Monday.

Temperatures Monday afternoon
Temperatures Monday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Tuesday brings another day of mild southwest breezes. Another January warm front is heading this way and blows through Minnesota on Wednesday.

Surface weather maps through Wednesday
Surface weather maps through Wednesday
NOAA

Tuesday’s highs will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Highs will reach the mid-40s in southwest Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Wednesday brings peak warmth with this January thaw. My temperature computations suggest the mid-40s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. I won’t be surprised to see 50s in southwest Minnesota this week.

And check out the remarkable warmth of the inbound air mass over the snow-free areas of Nebraska and South Dakota where temperatures will hit or exceed 60 degrees on Jan. 13.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Cold front Thursday

As you can see on the surface weather map above, a low-pressure system and cold front will sweep through Thursday after our unseasonably warm Wednesday. Look for a chance of rain or snow Thursday, with gusty northwest winds driving much colder air southward.

High by Saturday will be slightly colder than average, with 20s south and teens in northern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

There are still signs of possible subzero air by around Jan. 22.