Pattern change: Colder, snowier 2nd half of winter ahead?
Signs that winter may kick into high gear
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It’s almost halftime for the winter of 2020-21.
The first half of winter has been unseasonably mild. Temperatures are running about 6 degrees warmer than average so far this winter in the Twin Cities. It’s been even milder in western Minnesota and especially the Red River Valley.
Here’s a look at temperature departures from average over the past 30 days.
It looks like that is about to change as we head into the second half of January.
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Pattern change ahead
I posted at length earlier today about our growingly likely winter storm for Minnesota Thursday and Friday.
That looks like it could be the beginning of a bigger pattern change to colder, and possibly snowier late January, and possibly February.
NOAA’s upper air forecast maps suggest the jet stream will gradually dip further south into the U.S. over the next two to three weeks. That opens the door to more frequent cold air outbreaks, and a potentially more active storm track.
NOAA’s 16-day temperatures outlook sometimes teases us with cold air outbreaks, then keeps moving them further into the future. But in recent days the trend seems to suggest a possible shot of subzero air between about Jan. 22 and 29.
NOAA’s CFS2 climate forecast model suggest a wetter than average pattern may emerge across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest in February.
If this pattern change evolves, it could be a colder and snowier second half of winter in Minnesota.
Stay tuned.
