Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Polar vortex potential emerging by next weekend?

It's early, but signs suggest a bitterly cold airmass could invade Minnesota late next week

NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly
NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly for Feb. 6.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Well, you knew the other winter weather shoe would drop eventually right?

Next week’s weather maps are looking increasingly “interesting” in Minnesota. There are signs of possible snow later next week. Then some forecast model scenarios drive a possibly bitterly cold lobe of the Polar Vortex southward into Minnesota by the 1st weekend in February.

Heavier snow chance next Thursday?

Thursday’s American and European forecast models started cranking up a possible snow system for Minnesota by late next Wednesday into Thursday. It’s still a week out, and very early to place high confidence in this forecast solution. But when two of our major forecast models come up with a potentially significant snowstorm, it gets meteorologists’ attention.

NOAA’s GFS model winds up a possible snowmaker and drives it into Minnesota late next Wednesday into Thursday. Keep in mind this is a week out, and should only be viewed as potential, and not precise.

NOAA GFS model Wednesday and Thursday
NOAA GFS model Feb. 3 and Feb. 4.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Bottom line? The chances are growing for a possible snow system next Wednesday and Thursday.

Possibly polar?

Forecast models also hint at a possible lobe of the polar vortex breaking off and diving south into Minnesota by late next week.

NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly
NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly for Feb. 6.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

This pattern suggests the arctic invasion could dive deeper into Minnesota than this week’s shot which produced minus 35 in northern Minnesota.

The early temperature outputs from NOAA’s GFS model suggest minus 30s again possible up north, with minus 20s possible across southern Minnesota.

NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for February 7
NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for 6 a.m. Feb. 7.
NOAA via pivotal weather

If this pattern verifies, it will be the coldest air mass of the winter for southern Minnesota to date.

Stay tuned.

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