Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Polar vortex: 20 below in the Twin Cities this weekend?

Winter coldest air mass likely arrives this weekend.

Upper air forecast maps between Thursday and Saturday
Upper air forecast maps between Thursday and Saturday night
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Minnesota’s other winter weather shoe is flying through the air and ready to land with a thud this weekend.

An arctic outbreak now appears nearly certain this weekend. It is likely to bring the coldest temperatures of winter to much of Minnesota.

Polar vortex

The upper-air forecast maps for this upcoming weekend break off a lobe of the polar vortex and drive it directly south from the Arctic Circle into Minnesota.

Check out the upper-air animation around 18,000 feet from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model.

Upper air forecast maps between Thursday and Saturday
Upper air forecast maps between Thursday and Saturday night
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Minus 20 to 40 below possible

Right now Sunday and Monday mornings look like the coldest. Many forecast models are cranking out temperatures in the 20s below zero Sunday morning. Temperatures of negative 30 are likely up north.

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 6 am Sunday February 6
NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 6 am Sunday February 6
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The colder nooks and crannies in northern Minnesota like Embarrass often dip to minus 40 in air masses like this.

Cold, snowy February?

Our long advertised La Niña pattern may finally be revealing itself in February. The overall outlooks lean colder, and snowier this month.

Our first shot of February snow is possible Thursday in advance of the arctic front. This could be the coldest, and potentially snowiest month of winter in Minnesota this year.

Stay tuned.