Blinking red: Temperature outlooks favor a mild March for Minnesota

It’s that time of year in Minnesota.

The worst of winter’s cold is over. Milder air masses start to hint that spring is on the way in the coming weeks. Monday brought the first 40-degree temperatures to much of Minnesota since Dec. 23. Temperatures reached the 50s and 60s in South Dakota Monday.

We’re still likely to see snow and some cold shots in the next few weeks. But it’s clear the worst of winter is now behind us.

Mild March bias?

March arrives next Monday. The medium-range temperatures outlooks are blinking red. Emerging upper air patterns suggest March will get off to a mild start next week across the Upper Midwest. The upper air forecast by next Wednesday, March 4, suggests the jet stream will lift north into southern Canada. That’s considerably farther north than typical March climatology.

This type of flow pattern opens the door to mild Pacific air mass intrusions in the Upper Midwest.

NOAA’s experimental week 3 and 4 temperature outlook strongly favors milder than average temperatures through mid-March.

NOAA’s CFS2 climate forecast product favors warmer than average temperatures overall in Minnesota in March.

It’s important to note these products show less skill than typical weather forecasts in the one- to two-week range. But they often pick up on temperature trends. This product currently estimates March average temperatures around 3.6 degrees above average for much of Minnesota.

Milder than average spring potential?

A March that ends up 3 to 4 degrees warmer than average could favor an early spring this year. Again, that doesn’t preclude big March (or April) snowstorms, or periodic feisty cold fronts.

But if many areas in Minnesota start to lose snow cover in March, the higher sun angle can add as much as 10 degrees to daily temperatures in those areas.

Stay tuned as we watch evolving temperature outlooks and snow cover trends across Minnesota in the next few weeks.