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String of 70s ahead; will April's other snowy shoe drop this year?

First weekend in April will feel more like June

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 3 pm Monday April 5
NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 3 pm Monday April 5
NOAA via pivotal weather

It may sound like an early April Fool’s joke.

Another unseasonably warm air mass blows into Minnesota for the first weekend of April. Highs this weekend will feel more like June than April.

Jet stream shifts north

What’s the biggest driver of our weather patterns in the Upper Midwest? It’s the position of the jet stream.

The jet stream across North America is about meander far north of its climatological mean position once again. Watch how the core of the upper winds lift well north of Minnesota into Canada again this weekend into early next week.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm April 5
Upper air forecast map for 7 pm April 5
NOAA

String of 70s

The northerly jet position allows another unseasonably mild air mass to blow into the Upper Midwest. Combine the milder air mass with increasingly powerful early April sunshine, and you have a recipe for high temperatures well into the 70s, and possibly even 80s.

Saturday’s highs reach 60 degrees in much of northern Minnesota, with 70s south and west.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

By Monday, temperatures push well into the 70s, with 80s once again surging into western Minnesota.

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 3 pm Monday April 5
NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 3 pm Monday April 5
NOAA via pivotal weather

The warm air mass is likely to linger into next Tuesday, before somewhat cooler air returns late next week.

April snow this year?

The past three Aprils have brought heavy snow to Minnesota. With our big warmup, we’re always tempted to think April’s other, colder, snowier, shoe can’t be far behind.

While there are no indication of a big April snow event so far, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS does suggest a colder pattern with potential snow around April 18.

NOAA GFS model output for April 18
NOAA GFS model output for April 18
NOAA via tropical tidbits

This could just be a model hiccup, or a preview of one last spring snow for parts of Minnesota.

Stay tuned.