Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Thunderstorm, slight severe risk tonight; 1 to 3-inch rainfall for many this week

Scattered storms likely tonight after record heat Monday. Wetter week evolving.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Our July interlude caps off with a thunder threat Monday night.

A cold front eases through Minnesota overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are likely along the frontal zone. Forecast models differ on storm timing and coverage.

NOAA’s latest NAM 3 km resolution suggests a thunder cluster in the Twin Cities as early as 9 p.m. Monday night.

NOAA NAM 3 km model at 9 pm Monday
NOAA NAM 3 km model at 9 p.m. Monday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s HRR model suggests a later onset near the Twin Cities, with a cluster in the Twin Cities around midnight.

NOAA HRRR model at midnight Tuesday
NOAA HRRR model at midnight Tuesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s Storms Prediction Center lays out the slight severe risk zone.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Wet week ahead

Monday’s night’s storm coverage looks spotty. But more widespread rains are moving in this week. A low-pressure system arrives Tuesday, then stalls over Minnesota this week. It won’t rain all the time, but rain chances will be there each day into the weekend.

A widespread swath of 1- to 3-plus-inch rainfall looks likely by this weekend.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output through Saturday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Keep the rain gear handy.