Tracking rainfall timing into Friday; July-like weekend ahead

Much of Minnesota needs rain

NOAA GFS precipitation output into Friday morning
NOAA's Global Forecast System precipitation output into Friday morning
NOAA via pivotal weather

Welcome to “hit or miss” convective rainfall season.

It’s very typical to get highly localized downpours during the warm season in the Midwest. Like, your neighbor down the street picks up a welcome soaking, and you’re still watering your thirsty young plants.

Expect more dry hours than rain through Friday morning. The best chance for a good soaking favors Wednesday night into Thursday.

NOAA’s HRRR model paints scattered showers and thundershowers moving north through Minnesota Wednesday into Thursday morning. Here’s the model output from 1 p.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday.

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NOAA HRRR model from 1 pm Wednesday to 1 am Thursday
NOAA HRRR model from 1 pm Wednesday to 1 am Thursday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Overall rainfall totals range from spotty and light to as much as half an inch in many areas. A few lucky locations in central and northern Minnesota may pick up an inch or more by Friday morning. Here’s the NOAA Global Forecast System’s projected rainfall output into Friday morning.

NOAA GFS precipitation output into Friday morning
NOAA GFS precipitation output into Friday morning
NOAA via pivotal weather

July-like weekend ahead

The forecast models continue to crank up the heat and humidity for this upcoming weekend. Highs soar well into the 80s by Saturday afternoon. The lake beckons.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

Rain and thunder chances favor northern Minnesota this weekend. Rain chances increase again for the Twin Cities Sunday afternoon and evening into Monday.