Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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They’re hoping for rain in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) fire zone burning northwest of Ely. The weather maps look favorable.

A moist southerly flow is pushing dew points higher. Dew points are already in the mid-50s in the Ely area.

At least two waves of showers and thunderstorms are likely to move across the BWCA region overnight Wednesday into Thursday. NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) model paints the precipitation zones moving north. 

Rainfall totals typically show local variability during warm season rain events, so it’s tough to say how much rain will fall in the relatively small fire zone. But forecast model overall rainfall totals across northeast Minnesota and the BWCA suggest anywhere from .3 to .8 inches in many areas.

The rainfall forecast favors fire suppression, but additional lightning strikes and fire starts are always a concern. 

Warmer and drier weather is likely Friday, but dew points should remain high. Dew points should be in the 60s Saturday across northeast Minnesota.  

There is another chance for rain in the BWCA region Sunday and Monday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Higher humidity and rainfall is likely in Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) fire zone. Showers increase in BWCA Wednesday night into Thursday.

Duluth National Weather Service

Weather conditions at Ely Wednesday afternoon 

NOAA

NOAA NAM 3 km model rainfall zones between 3 am and noon Thursday

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA GFS precipitation output into Friday morning

NOAA via pivotal weather 

NOAA GFS model Dew point forecast for 7 pm Saturday

Higher humidity and rainfall likely in BWCA fire zone

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