Pleasantly summery weekend; heat builds next week
A string of 90s ahead next week.
From a pure weather standpoint, this looks like one of the best weekends of summer in Minnesota. Highs in the 80s and plenty of sunshine are what many Minnesotans live for here in summer.
The downsides of trumpeting our great-looking weekend forecast are the wildfire smoke and deepening drought. Closures in the BWCA are already happening due to the proximity of nearby fires in Quetico Provincial Park in Ontario.
Heat builds next week
The forecast maps still favor extreme heat across the Upper Midwest and High Plains next week. NOAA’s GFS is the most aggressive with a string of highs above 100 degrees centered on the Dakotas and leaking into western Minnesota next week.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center highlights the excessive heat risk next week.
Hazards
High risk of excessive heat for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota, Fri-Sat, July 23-24.
Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern Plains, and Northern and Central Rockies, Fri-Sat, July 23-24.
Slight risk of excessive heat for the Great Basin, Northern and Central Rockies, Northern and Central Plains, and Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Fri-Thu, July 23-29.
Drought likely to deepen
I wish I had better news about the forecast for the next two weeks.
The overall upper-air pattern across North America favors a return to hot and mostly dry conditions across the Upper Midwest. NOAA’s 8 to 14-day temperature outlook paints a red bull’s eye across Minnesota and the Dakotas.
The precipitation outlook favors below average rainfall through the rest of July.
So it looks very likely that drought and fire danger will increase across most of Minnesota in the next two weeks.
Stay tuned.