Severe risk: Midnight thunder Monday?

Heat index pushing 100 Tuesday and Wednesday

Severe weather risk areas Monday night
Severe weather risk areas through 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Our nocturnal thunderstorms season is cranking up.

A cluster of rain and thunderstorms delivered some meaningful rainfall from western Minnesota into parts of the Twin Cities. Some 1 inch rainfall totals fell across western Minnesota, with half an inch in parts of the western Twin Cities.

Here are some select rainfall totals from the overnight storms.

  • Benson 1.55 inches

  • Holloway 0.9 inches

  • Minnetonka 0.78 inches

  • Edina 0.6 inches

  • Willmar 0.42 inches

Rainfall totals early Monday
Rainfall totals early Monday
CoCoRaHS

Severe risk Monday night

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms through tonight across much of northern and central Minnesota. This includes Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Duluth and Hinckley.

A slight risk surrounds that area and includes the Arrowhead from Ely to the North Shore and the I-94 corridor from Fargo through St. Cloud.

A marginal risk includes the Twin Cities.

Severe weather risk areas Monday night
Severe weather risk areas through 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Storm coverage and timing?

Forecast models suggest scattered storms will develop across central and northern Minnesota through Monday evening. The storms will likely drift slowly southward overnight Monday. The European model brings storms close to the Twin Cities by midnight.

European model (ECMWF) for midnight Tuesday
European model (ECMWF) for midnight Tuesday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model favors storms around 2 or 3 a.m. for Twin Cities.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 9 p.m. Monday and 3 a.m. Tuesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Excessive heat watch

Another shot of intensely hot and humid air blows across southern Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Twin Cities NWS has posted an excessive heat watch for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Excessive heat watch
Excessive heat watch Tuesday and Wednesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees across most of southern Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday.

Forecast heat index values
Forecast heat index values
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Thankfully, a cooler and much less humid air mass arrives Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

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