Updated severe potential Wednesday; highest risk zone in Wisconsin

Severe storms are likely in eastern Minnesota and especially Wisconsin.

We’re still watching the severe weather pot to see where it boils today.

A low-pressure system and cold front is sagging southeast across our region today. That’s triggering some strong storms, and the severe risk is there. The highest risk for severe storms and possible tornadoes lies across Wisconsin today. But eastern Minnesota is also in the risk zone.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center’s midday update paints a moderate risk across much of Wisconsin. The highest risk zone has shifted slightly eastward today. A slight risk covers most of the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas
NOAA

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model spawns a line of potentially damaging storms with possible tornadoes this afternoon across Wisconsin moving southeast. The western edge may just clip the Twin Cities according to many forecast solutions.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 4 p.m. and midnight.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Some models keep the bulk of the severe storms east of the Twin Cities, but it looks like a close call.

Stay alert for likely severe weather watches and warnings later this afternoon and evening.

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