Sunday p.m. thunder chance starts in western Minn.; Henri headed toward Northeastern U.S.

Westerly winds were gusting over 30 mph at times Saturday afternoon as firefighters battled the Greenwood fire in Superior National Forest. 

The U.S. Forest Service has closed the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness to visitors for at least one week. This was posted on Facebook Saturday by the U.S. Forest Service-Superior National Forest:

The rumors are true. The Superior National Forest is closing the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, effective August 21, 2021, due to active and increasing fire activity, extreme drought, limited resources. The closure will be in place for seven days, and may be modified or extended as conditions allow.

This closure includes all lands, waters, trails, portages, campsite, canoe routes and Wilderness entry points in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. The Forest has notified permit holders and outfitters and is cancelling permits today through August 27. Permit holders will be fully reimbursed. At this time, all overnight paddle, day use and motorized day use is cancelled. The Forest will reopen portions of the Wilderness and/or some uses when it is safe.

We did not make this decision lightly. We understand it will have significant impacts on business and our visitors. Thank you for your cooperation and understanding.

Winds will be much lighter on Sunday, but they will switch direction; coming mainly from the south by Sunday afternoon and evening.

More coverage of the wildfires in northeastern Minnesota can be found here.

Air quality alert northeast

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency continues an air quality alert this weekend and until 3 p.m. Monday in portions of northeastern Minnesota:

Here are details of the air quality alert:

MNZ012-020-021-232000- Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Southern Cook/North Shore-Southern Lake/North Shore- Including the tribal nation of Grand Portage Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM CDT MONDAY... * WHAT...The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality Alert for fine particle pollution. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is expected to reach the Orange or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups category. * WHERE...Lake and Cook counties in Northeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Through 3 PM CDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, may experience health effects. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The Greenwood fire continues to burn in the Superior National Forest in northeast Minnesota. The fire is located near Greenwood Lake, or approximately 15 miles southwest of Isabella. On Friday, the fire grew from 4,734 acres to an estimated area of 9,067 acres. Winds will be westerly on Saturday, and smoke will impact areas near and immediately downwind of the fire to the east. Winds will switch from the north on Saturday evening, then become southerly on Sunday afternoon. Smoke from the Canadian Quetico fires will impact Cook County from Saturday evening through Sunday as the wind direction changes. Smoke from the Greenwood fire will impact downwind areas to the north on Sunday. On Monday, smoke impacts will be limited to downwind of the Greenwood fire to the north. Fine particle levels are expected to reach the Orange AQI category, a level that is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, for the affected downwind area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, should limit prolonged or heavy exertion. For information on current air quality conditions in your area and to sign up for daily air quality forecasts and alert notifications by email, text message, phone, or the Minnesota Air mobile app, visit https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air/current-air-quality. You can find additional information about health and air quality at https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air/why-you-should-care-air-quality-and- health.

Rain chances late Sunday

Much of Sunday will be dry. Far western Minnesota could see some scattered showers/t-storms by mid to late afternoon on Sunday, then that rain chance spreads into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Sunday through 6 a.m. Monday:

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 80 degrees this time of year. MSP airport topped out at 75 degrees Saturday afternoon. Gusty winds made it feel a bit like September.

Parts of the metro area could touch 80 Sunday afternoon, with much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin topping out in the 70s:

Sunday dew points will be in the comfortable 50s:

Back to high temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, then lower 80s Wednesday and upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane Henri

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Henri is located 240 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina late Saturday afternoon. Henri has max sustained winds of 75 mph.

According to the Hurricane Center:

Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday.

Here is the projected track of Henri, which includes the “cone of uncertainty” for the track of Henri’s center:

Here’s the Saturday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 71.4W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for minor and moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

In addition to wind damage and a storm surge, portions of Long Island and Connecticut could receive 6 to 10 inches of rain in the next couple of days:

The Hurricane Center issues updates every three hours or so.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.