Pattern change: Heavy rainfall potential emerging late this week
Forecast models are cranking out possible multi-inch rainfall totals
There’s potentially good news on the weather maps for those looking for significant rainfall this week. Several inches of rain could fall in parts of central and southern Minnesota through next weekend.
The weather maps this week have a look I have yet to see this summer. A pattern change brings multiple chances for rainfall this week. Multiple low-pressure waves and deep tropical moisture appear ready to finally deliver some welcome heavy rainfall totals.
Tuesday rain chance
Let’s start with Tuesday. Scattered storms are likely across central and southern Minnesota Tuesday morning. Scattered storms are likely to develop in parts of central and southern Minnesota in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Cells look likely to linger into the morning hours in some areas, including parts of the greater Twin Cities.
NOAA’s WRF model paints scattered thunderstorms moving into western and central Minnesota overnight and blowing through the Twin Cities during the morning and midday hours Tuesday.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
A few of the storms could reach severe limits Tuesday with large hail and wind gusts over 60 mph. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal risk for severe storms across much of Minnesota Tuesday.
Thursday and Friday: Heavy rain potential
Minnesota is between weather systems Wednesday. A stronger and potentially much wetter system pushes into Minnesota Thursday and Friday.
NOAA’s GFS model tracks the slow-moving low-pressure wave, spawning more widespread clusters of rain and thunderstorms across most of Minnesota Thursday and Friday.
Another system Sunday brings additional rainfall chances.
Multi-inch rainfall totals?
Most forecast models crank out significant to heavy rainfall totals through the upcoming weekend.
The European model is consistent with American models in cranking out anywhere from 2 inches of rainfall across a wide area of central and southern Minnesota, to more than 4 to 6 inches locally by next Monday morning.
With multi-inch rainfall, there is the potential for flash flooding late this week — in a drought year.
At this point, rainfall totals look lighter for the fire zones in northeast Minnesota. But it appears 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall in northeast Minnesota by next Monday.
Stay tuned as we watch forecast models for updates on rainfall coverage and intensity this week.