Another 2 to 5 inches of rainfall likely across much of Minnesota by Monday
Two more storm systems likely to deliver multiple waves of heavy rain.
Tuesday’s locally heavy rainfall was just the appetizer. The second and third courses in our welcome late August rainfall buffet are on the way Thursday through Sunday.
The Weather Lab rain gauge has been getting a workout in the past week. Tuesday’s rainfall total topped out at .90” here in Victoria. Combined with two lighter rainfalls I’ve picked up about 1.5” of welcome rain in the past week.
That number may pale in comparison to what’s on the way Thursday through Sunday.
Let’s break down the inbound weather systems, and rainfall potential for all of Minnesota through the upcoming weekend.
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Northern Minnesota: Spotty rainfall overnight
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will cross northern Minnesota overnight into Wednesday morning. The fire zones in northeast Minnesota could pick up .25” with locally heavier totals. Coverage will be random and spotty as usual with summertime cells.
Thursday and Friday: Heavy rainfall potential
Our next major weather system rolls into Minnesota Thursday and Friday. Several waves of thunderstorms should cross Minnesota, with the heaviest rainfall likely south of a Fargo to Duluth line.
While coverage and timing of localized summer convection is usually chaotic, I like the look of NOAA’s GFS model as it paints multiple rain and thunder zones marching across Minnesota between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 p.m. Friday.
This system looks capable of dropping widespread 2” to 5”+ rainfall totals across especially central and southern Minnesota by late Friday. Rainfall totals look lighter in northern Minnesota, but could exceed an inch by Friday evening.
Weekend forecast: Another rain wave
A cold front sages slowly across Minnesota this weekend. The system will likely spawn additional rain and thunder waves both Saturday and Sunday.
Here’s the Canadian model’s view of the system between 7 a.m. Saturday and 1 p.m. Sunday.
Overall by Monday, most of central and southern Minnesota is likely to see between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall. Forecast models suggest there could be some local bands that record more than 6 inches of rainfall by Monday. If one of these bands sets up and hangs over the same area for several hours, I can’t rule out localized flash flooding between Thursday and Sunday.
3 to 6+ inches of rain will not completely wipe out drought with rainfall deficits that are now running 6 to 10 below average inches since June 1. But it would go a long way to recharging soil moisture and boosting water levels in areas ponds, rivers and lakes.
Stay tuned.