Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Severe risk: Monday storms most likely in Twin Cities 6 p.m to 10 p.m.

Slight risk for severe weather for southern Minnesota and far southern Twin Cities

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas.
NOAA

Our next severe weather risk unfolds across southern Minnesota Monday night when a low-pressure wave moves into southern Minnesota. Conditions are favorable for thunderstorms, and a few storms could reach severe limits.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across southern Minnesota, including the far southern Twin Cities area. Severe thunderstorm criteria include winds of at least 58 mph and hail 1 inch or greater in diameter.

The rest of the Twin Cities region, St. Cloud, Willmar, and Redwood Falls are in a marginal risk zone:

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas.
NOAA

Twin Cities storms

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model is typical of short-range forecast models that show thunderstorms in southwestern Minnesota late Monday afternoon into the early evening. The most likely window for storms in the greater Twin Cities area is between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between 5 p.m. Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.
NOAA, via tropical tidbits

Here’s another look at expected storm timing and coverage from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office.

The most likely storm threats Monday night are damaging winds and large hail. There is a low but nonzero risk of a tornado.

Rainfall totals should fall between one-half inch and 1 inch across most of southern Minnesota.

weather graphic
Rainfall forecast through Tuesday morning
National Weather Service

Remember to check the MPR News severe weather live blog for up-to-the-minute watch and warning information and storm reports.