Severe storm risk Thursday for much of Minnesota

Scattered strong to severe storm chances favor northern and central Minnesota Thursday. It's a lower risk for the Twin Cities area Thursday night.

Severe weather risk areas Thursday
Severe weather risk areas Thursday.
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management

I hope you’re enjoying our fine September weather again today.

Minnesota is riding the northern part of a balmy September air mass. Highs in the 70s cover most of Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. Dew points in the 40s provide a superior comfort level. This air mass is more like Arizona. In late November.

Severe risk Thursday

Our dew points will increase into the 60s tomorrow with the southerly flow. A cold front slides into Minnesota tomorrow. As it cuts into our warmer, more unstable air mass expect scattered thunderstorms to blossom across northern Minnesota Thursday afternoon. The air mass will be most unstable up north, but the line may form a southerly extension into central Minnesota and possibly the Twin Cites by Thursday evening.

Severe weather risk areas for northern Minnesota
Severe weather risk areas for northern Minnesota.
Duluth National Weather Service

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model picks up on that notion and brings a cluster of rain and thunder near the Twin Cities by 9 to 10 p.m. Thursday evening.

NOAA NAM 3 km model Thursday
NOAA NAM 3 km model from 1 pm to 11 pm Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk through northern Minnesota extending south through central Minnesota and into the northwest Twin Cities, with a lesser marginal risk for the rest of the Twin Cities area.

Severe weather risk areas Thursday
Severe weather risk areas Thursday.
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management

Keep an eye out for possible strong to severe storms. Especially in northern and central Minnesota Thursday. The Twin Cities may see storms that are fading a bit as they approach after dark Thursday night.

Rainfall potential

Rainfall totals into Friday look variable again locally. Areas that get under more vigorous storms should pick up .50” of rain. There may be some local 1”+ totals. Here’s the European model rainfall output into Friday.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Stay tuned.

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