Rainy Monday: Thunder and local downpours, marginal severe risk

Some parts of Minnesota could see 1 to 3 inches of rain Monday. A few storms could be severe.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast Monday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Our next rainmaker moves through Minnesota Monday.

A low-pressure system near the Canadian border drags a cold front through Minnesota. Scattered rain and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal zone as it moves eastward through Minnesota.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model shows the rain zone moving slowly eastward. The midday and afternoon hours are most favored for the strongest cells around the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model from 7 am to 7 pm Monday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Here’s another radar timing estimate from the Twin Cities NWS office.

Here’s the view for northern Minnesota from the Duluth NWS office.

Rainfall and severe weather outlook for northern Minnesota
Rainfall and severe weather outlook for northern Minnesota.
Duluth National Weather Service

Locally heavy rainfall

Many areas could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall Monday. Several forecast models crank out some pockets of 2 to 3-inch rainfall totals under the stronger cells. Here’s the European model rainfall output.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast Monday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Severe risk

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal (low) severe risk that includes most of the Twin Cities, and a slight risk for the far east metro, southeast Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Severe weather risk areas Monday
Severe weather risk areas Monday.
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management

So grab the umbrella Monday, and keep an ear and eye out for possible severe weather warnings. Get up to the minute severe weather information at the MPR severe weather live blog, and @MPRWeather on twitter.

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