Weather whiplash: From 80s to freezing this week

It's 82 degrees in western Minnesota Monday. Freezing temperatures return Friday morning.

Weather conditions at Madison Minnesota Monday
Weather conditions in Madison, Minn., Monday afternoon
NOAA

Make up your mind already, Minnesota weather.

Temperatures soared to 80 degrees again Monday afternoon in western Minnesota. Madison hit 82 degrees as of this post. And temperatures are in the 70s all the way north to the Canadian border once again. A few 60s linger in northeast Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday
NOAA

This unseasonable warmth is part of an October temperature pattern that has the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota running about 9 degrees warmer than average this month.

Tuesday brings another mild day with highs in the 70s once again for the southeast half of Minnesota. But note the colder air seeping into northwest Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Rain Wednesday

Wednesday brings a transition to wetter, then colder weather this week. A low-pressure system crosses Minnesota Wednesday with widespread rain. NOAA’s GFS model tracks the system as it moves eastward Wednesday.

NOAA GFS model Wednesday
NOAA GFS model 1 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Most forecast models generate between a quarter to half an inch of rainfall for much of central and southern Minnesota on Wednesday. Many, like NOAA’s GFS model below, suggest some local 1-inch rainfall totals are possible.

NOAA GFS rainfall output through Wednesday
NOAA GFS rainfall output through Wednesday
NOAA via pivotal weather

Frosty again by Friday

The cold front behind Wednesday’s system pulls down colder air from Canada. Low by Friday morning will dip below freezing again across much of Minnesota. Lows in the Twin Cities should reach the low to mid-30s Friday and Saturday mornings.

Forecast minimum temps Friday morning
Forecast minimum temps Friday morning
NOAA

The lowest temperature recorded at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport so far this season is 38 degrees. So our inbound air mass late this week could be the season’s coldest so far for many locations.

Highs by Saturday hover in the 40s across most of Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

A couple of models crank out one more 70-degree day next week.

Stay tuned.

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