Rainy Wednesday; frost returns by Friday

Expect occasional rain Wednesday. Much colder air blows in through the weekend.

Forecast low temperatures Sunday morning
Forecast low temperatures Sunday morning.

Here comes October. Or, at least the month formerly known as October.

Wednesday brings rain to Minnesota. A low-pressure system will cross the state Wednesday. Rain arrives in southwest Minnesota early Wednesday and should spread into the Twin Cities area during the midday hours. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model pushes an arc of rain and embedded thunder northeast across southern Minnesota Wednesday morning.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 7 am Wednesday and 1 am Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Rainfall totals will likely land between .25 and .50 inches for much of Minnesota. But some local +1-inch totals look likely. Here’s the European model rainfall output.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output through Wednesday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Marginal severe risk for southern Minnesota

There’s enough energy in the air with this system to generate a few thunderstorms, and some could reach severe limits across southern Minnesota. Gusty winds will also blow in Wednesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Frosty start to the weekend

Colder air pours south once again later this week. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday.

Friday and Saturday mornings bring more widespread frost and freezing temperatures to Minnesota.

Forecast low temperatures Sunday morning
Forecast low temperatures Sunday morning.

Forecast models suggest the 70s may return to parts of Minnesota next Tuesday.

Stay tuned.

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