Will November break the string of 7 straight warmer than average months?

The 2021 warm season in Minnesota has been the longest in my memory.

October was the seventh straight warmer than average month across most of Minnesota. As you can see in the image above, October temperatures ran more than 6 degrees warmer than average in our region. It was the ninth warmest October on record for the Twin Cities.

Now, November.

November is the month in Minnesota with the steepest temperature decline. The average high in the Twin Cities on November 1 is 50 degrees. By the 30th it’s just 33 degrees, a 17-degree plunge.

November opens on brisk notes. After a freezing morning, highs Wednesday run in the 40s once again across most of Minnesota.

The temperature outlook warms through the weekend. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 8- to 14-day temperature outlook features equal chances of above or below-average temperatures.

NOAA’s week 3 and 4 temperatures outlook still favor warmer than average temperatures overall, so it’s going to be interesting to see where November temperatures finish compared to average.

Wild card: Snow

The biggest wild card this month for temperatures is snow cover. Extensive snow cover can easily drop 10 to 20 degrees compared to years without snow cover. That’s because as much as 90 percent of the sun’s energy is reflected back into space before it can heat the lower atmosphere.

But on bare ground, about 70 percent of the sun’s energy goes into heating the lower atmosphere.

Rain or snow next week?

The forecast models this week hint at a possible rain or snow system later next week. here’s NOAA’s GFS model between Wednesday and Friday of next week.

Will parts of Minnesota be snow-covered in about 10 days?

Stay tuned.