A wintry pattern change and snow in about 10 days?

But first 50s and 60s again possible by next Thursday.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast noon Thursday December 2
European model (ECMWF) temperature output for noon Thursday, December 2.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Peering deep into the medium-range (1-2 week) forecast maps is a scary endeavor this time of year. The looking glass gets fuzzy after about a week. And this time of year, the light at the end of the weather forecast tunnel is quite possibly an oncoming Polar Express train.

Our Thanksgiving holiday weekend begins with a cold turkey day. The Thanksgiving beverages will chill quickly or could freeze on the deck this year. Highs hover in the teens north and 20s south Thursday.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thanksgiving Day.
NOAA

I’m grateful for a lot this year. One point of gratitude is for mostly dry Thanksgiving weekend travel.

The only fly in that weather ointment is a weak Clipper which has emerged onto the weather maps for Saturday. NOAA’s GFS model is picking up on a possible weak Clipper travelling along I-94 from Fargo through the Twin Cities. It may bring a mix of light rain and snow.

NOAA GFS model Saturday
NOAA GFS model Saturday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Sunday looks quiet with highs in the 40s in the Twin Cities, 50s in southwest Minnesota, with 30s up north.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday.
NOAA

December opens mild?

The maps next week favor another shot of unseasonably mild air to close November and open December. The European model is cranking out highs in the 50s again for the Twin Cities with 60s in southwest Minnesota next Thursday.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast noon Thursday December 2
European model (ECMWF) temperature output for noon Thursday, December 2.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

The GFS model suggests a possible winter storm arriving around December 4th. It also suggests a transition to much colder air in the following days as we move into December.

Thank you for being a reader of this Updraft blog and consumer of all things MPR Weather. May you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Stay tuned.

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