Gradually colder; weekend snow chance up north

Potentially plowable snow for northern Minnesota this weekend.

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities area forecast at a glance.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Cold fronts lately are just not what they used to be in Minnesota.

Two cool fronts sag southward across Minnesota Thursday.

Surface weather map at 6 am Thursday
Surface weather map at 6 am Thursday.
NOAA

They will deliver an air mass about 10 degrees colder than Wednesday, but temperatures will still hover about 10 degrees above average for Dec. 2 in southern Minnesota. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s in southern Minnesota with 30s up north.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday.
NOAA

Keep in mind the average high temperature for this week is around 34 degrees in the Twin Cities. Our mild fall has skewed our normal weather perspective lately.

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Overall the forecast for southern Minnesota looks fairly quiet through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will gradually chill down into the more seasonable 30s by the weekend, with 20s in northern Minnesota.

Weekend snow chance up north

Now, let’s talk about snow. Most forecast models are moving a weather system through northern Minnesota this weekend that could produce significant snow. The precise track of the system is still uncertain, but the majority of forecast model solutions do bring possible accumulations north of a Fargo to Duluth line.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model run.

NOAA GFS model Saturday and Sunday
NOAA GFS model Saturday and Sunday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

If this scenario verifies, much of northern Minnesota could see potentially plowable snowfall this weekend. The Twin Cities would be on the southern edge of the system, with little accumulation likely and maybe a few snow showers.

Stay tuned as we watch the new forecast model runs Thursday.