NOAA: 95 percent chance for a tornado watch by 2 p.m.

Here’s a quick update on our unfolding severe weather risk Wednesday across the Upper Midwest.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has sent a message that there is a 95 percent chance they will issue a tornado watch for the Upper Midwest by 2 p.m. Wednesday afternoon. The watch zone is likely to include much of Iowa and parts of Nebraska and southern Minnesota.

Here's more detail in the mesoscale discussion from NOAA.

Mesoscale Discussion 2027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NE...northeastern KS...northern MO...western/central IA...far southeastern SD...and southern MN Concerning...Severe potential...

Tornado Watch likely Valid 151828Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and rapidly intensify as they race northeastward this afternoon. Widespread severe winds of 60-75 mph are likely, with gusts to 80-100 mph possible. A few tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado or two, may also occur. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 2 PM CDT.

Be prepared for a watch to be issued. Additional watches may cover more of Minnesota later Wednesday afternoon and evening. A risk for severe weather continues for much of southern Minnesota through Wednesday evening.