Warming trend starts Tuesday; plowable snow chances Friday

Forecast models suggest significant snowfall Friday across most of Minnesota

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model temperature output between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m. Tuesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Get ready for a warming trend across Minnesota starting Tuesday.

Our arctic Monday featured temperatures of minus 8 in the Twin Cities, with 30s below zero in parts of northern Minnesota. It was our seventh subzero morning in the Twin Cities so far this season. That’s about on pace for our annual average of 23 subzero days in winter.

We’re hovering a few degrees on either side of zero across most of Minnesota Monday evening. Temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will hold fairly steady across most of Minnesota.

Temperatures Monday afternoon
Temperatures Monday afternoon.
Oklahoma Mesonet

Milder Tuesday

Our warming trend kicks into gear Tuesday. Southerly breezes will push temperatures higher by midday. NOAA’s HRRR model temperatures animation between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m. shows temperatures pushing the 40-degree mark in southwest Minnesota, with 30 close to the Twin Cities, and 20s (above zero) up north.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model temperature output between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m. Tuesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Relatively milder air remains in place across Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will reach the 30s south with mostly 20s central and north.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

Plowable snow chance growing Friday

The American, Canadian and European models all suggest a potentially plowable snow event across much of Minnesota on Friday. It’s still too early to be precise about storm track and snowfall totals.

NOAA’s GFS is similar to other models suggesting a potentially potent clipper-type system diving southward across Minnesota with snow Friday.

NOAA GFS model Friday
NOAA GFS model between midnight and 6 p.m. Friday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The best actionable weather advice at this point is to factor in a growing chance of significant snow into your plans for Friday across most of Minnesota. At this point, the highest impact times look like afternoon rush hours and Friday evening.

Stay tuned this week as forecast models wrestle with specifics on storm track, timing and eventual snowfall totals.

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