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Flash thaws Saturday and next week, but a colder than average February overall?

Upper air maps suggest temperature whiplash for Minnesota in February.

NOAA GFS upper air forecast
NOAA GFS upper air forecast through Feb. 11.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Get ready for another free Minnesota roller coaster temperature ride.

Check out the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model forecast upper air pattern through Feb. 11 above. See how we alternate between bitter cold (blue) air masses and milder Pacific (red) air masses across Minnesota in the next two weeks?

With this pattern, we can still expect a few subzero arctic invasions this month. But milder Pacific air intrusions will become more frequent now as we slowly crawl out of the coldest weeks of winter.

Subzero Thursday morning

We bottom out below zero again Thursday morning across Minnesota with our latest arctic swipe. Wind chill warnings and advisories cover all of Minnesota into Thursday morning.

Lows will hover near 10 below zero around the Twin Cities, with negative 30s up north once again.

Forecast low temperatures Thursday morning
Forecast low temperatures Thursday morning.
NOAA

Pacific thaw Saturday

Saturday brings a rapid warmup to Minnesota. We’ll start out cold, then milder Pacific air blows rapidly into Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Highs will soar into the 30s across southern Minnesota, with 40s in the southwest. Note once again the 50s in Nebraska and western Iowa.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday.
NOAA

Colder air arrives again Sunday into Monday. But another warmup into the 20s and 30s sweeps in Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. NOAA’s six to 10-day outlook strongly favors warmer than average temperatures overall next week.

6 to 10-day temperature outlook
6 to 10-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

Arctic again in mid-February?

The medium-range upper air forecast maps hint at another shot of bitter arctic air between about Feb. 11 and 15. NOAA’s updated temperature outlook for February favors colder than average temperatures overall for Minnesota.

February temperature outlook
February temperature outlook
NOAA

So we can expect to feel some potentially extreme temperature whiplash this month as arctic and Pacific air masses battle for position over Minnesota.

Stay tuned.