Is the worst of winter's cold behind us?

6 to 10-day temperature outlook
Six to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

Looking for some uplifting weather news?

Yes, it’s Feb. 8, and there are still more frigid days ahead for Minnesota this month. But the medium-range forecast maps for Minnesota suggest the worst of winter’s cold is now behind us.

There are several trends that support this thinking.

More frequent Pacific air mass intrusions ahead

The medium-range forecast models over the next two weeks suggest we’ll see more frequent Pacific air masses sweeping through Minnesota, like the one across parts of the state Tuesday. Temperatures soared into the 40s and 50s again in southwest Minnesota, with even milder air just west and south.

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Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Lack of snow cover to the southwest

Check out the snow cover map across the northern United States. The ground is almost completely snow-free across South Dakota, Nebraska, western Iowa and southwest Minnesota.

Snow cover Tuesday
Snow cover Tuesday
NOAA/NOHRSC

That means the higher February sun angle and intensity warms the near-surface air mass much more efficiently than areas with snow cover.

Temperatures soared into the 50s in southwest Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

Weather conditions at Luverne Minnesota
Weather conditions at Luverne, Minn., Tuesday
NOAA

Stronger February sun and snow-free ground can add at least 10 degrees to the air mass blowing into Minnesota on days like Tuesday. As long as areas to the west stay snow-free, Minnesota will continue to see warmer days when winds blow from the west or southwest.

We’ll still see cold fronts with chilly winter days and a few more subzero nights. We’ve endured 16 nights at or below zero so far in the Twin Cities this winter. But I think we’ll probably be able to count the remaining number of subzero nights on one hand for the Twin Cities the rest of this winter.

And we’ll see more frequent days above freezing, with more days in the 40s in southern Minnesota. And hey, pitchers and catchers report to Minnesota Twins spring training on Feb. 19.

Stay tuned.