Spring fever: Highs in the 50s to 60s possible next week?

This might be the forecast we’ve been waiting for, Minnesota.

Tuesday’s forecast model runs are amplifying a trend that’s been brewing in the forecast maps for next week. A surge of significantly warmer air now looks likely to blow into Minnesota next week.

The European and American GFS models agree that the upper air pattern across North America will shift next week to a much milder Pacific flow. NOAA’s GFS builds an anomalously warm ridge of higher pressure across the central U.S. next week.

Here’s the upper air map for next Tuesday. The warm colors indicate 500-millibar heights well above normal for this time of year. That translates into warmer than average temperatures on the ground where we live.

A few forecast models are cranking out what could be the warmest air mass in over four months for parts of Minnesota. The last time the Twin Cities hit 60 degrees was Nov. 7, 2021, when the Minneapolis-St. Paul International topped out at 62 degrees.

The European model cranks out highs in the mid- to upper 50s as soon as next Tuesday and Wednesday.

The American GFS model cranks out temperatures in the mid-60s by next Thursday.

As meteorologists, we look at these maps more as confirmation of a trend rather than specific values each day. And that trend strongly suggests it’s going to get a lot warmer around here next week. Temperatures could be in the 50s, or possibly the 60s in southern Minnesota. Maybe even the Twin Cities. The precise degree of warming may depend on how much snow cover we can melt between now and next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Bottom line: This week will feel like winter around Minnesota. But next week has all the earmarks of a spring fever outbreak.

Stay tuned.