A string of 80s, steamy and stormy with a severe risk

90s likely Thursday. Severe storms likely Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday.
NOAA

We did it again today, Twin Cities. We hit 80 degrees once again at MSP Airport. But this time, we did it with a comfortably dry air mass. Dew points hovered in the 30s and 40s across Minnesota Tuesday.

We earn our springs and summers in Minnesota. And we really earned this one. Minnesota rode the milder northern end of a steamy air mass across the central U.S. Tuesday.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon.
Oklahoma Mesonet

But all that heat and humidity to the south gushes northward into Minnesota Wednesday. The best way to see that is the dew point loop. It still pumps tropical dew points quickly into Minnesota Wednesday.

Dew point forecast
NOAA GFS model dew point forecast between 7 am and 7 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

And highs will reach the 80s Wednesday, and lower 90s Thursday.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday.
NOAA

So that means we just jumped into a week that looks something like…

  • Monday 87 degrees

  • Tuesday 80 degrees

  • Wednesday 86 degrees

  • Thursday 92 degrees

Naturally.

Severe risk

Wednesday brings a slight risk for severe storms to much of Minnesota.

Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday.
NOAA

The timing of storms is still unclear. But a few trends are emerging. A few models suggest a slight chance for a few isolated storms moving from southwest Minnesota to near the Twin Cities around midday Wednesday.

But the better chance for more widespread storms favors Wednesday evening. NOAA’s HRRR model shows the trends, with a cluster of strong storms moving northeast through Minnesota Wednesday evening.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between 10 am Wednesday and midnight Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

This scenario favors storms around the Twin Cities between about 10 p.m. and midnight Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Another shot of potentially severe storms is likely Thursday night. The timing may be later evening once again.

Stay tuned.

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