Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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It’s that time of year when meteorologists sift through multiple weather forecast models searching for clues and consensus on thunderstorm development, location, and intensity. 

 like CAPE, CINH, Theta-E and lifted index get tossed around as we try and pinpoint areas of instability that are likely to trigger storm waves. 

Short-range forecast models like NAM, HRRR and WRF take center stage with sometimes hourly updates on storm location and timing.

Then the trick is to figure out which model(s) to believe in and craft a forecast on storm development, timing and intensity. 

With that little bit of inside weather baseball, here is the current best estimate for severe storm chances around Minnesota through Thursday. 

Severe risk #1: Wednesday afternoon and evening

A weak cold front blows through northern and central Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and evening. NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model shows scattered storm cells developing from a weak low-pressure wave in northern Minnesota southward along the frontal boundary toward the Twin Cities by Wednesday evening.

The loop below runs between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. Wednesday.

The most likely timing for the Twin Cities area for isolated strong to severe storms favors the early evening hours Wednesday between about 5 p.m. and 8 p.m.

 paints a marginal (low) risk that a few storms could turn severe Wednesday across northern and central Minnesota as far south as the Twin Cities.

A more organized system will bring storms to the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A few scattered storms may fire in the afternoon hours across southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities area. But it looks like a more concentrated line of storms will fire along an advancing cold front in central Minnesota and move toward the Twin Cities later Thursday night. 

Again, NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model shows the trends Thursday afternoon and evening. This loop runs between 3 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday. 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (2/5 categories) for severe storms over most of central and southern Minnesota Thursday. 

For those who want to dig deeper into what severe weather forecasters think, check out this 

 discussion from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. 

So stay tuned as we watch storms develop with possible severe weather watches and warnings both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Scattered severe storms may develop both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. 

Severe storm risk increases Wednesday and especially Thursday

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