Saturday 'sunrise surprise' storms could kick off a summery Memorial Day weekend

A few models bring thunder early Saturday morning.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday.
NOAA

Here we go, Minnesota.

The first of the big three warm-season holiday weekends is here. This Memorial Day weekend will feel like summer. Highs in the 80s and dew points rising into the sticky 60s to near 70 degrees at times will have the look and feel of late June or July.

The majority of this weekend will feature sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. But there are a couple of windows for passing thunderstorms. Some of those could be severe this weekend.

Saturday sunrise surprise?

Well, I guess it won’t be a surprise if you’re reading this. A few short-range models develop a cluster of storms overnight in western Minnesota that could roll into the Twin Cities and central Minnesota around sunrise Saturday.

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NOAA’s WRF model is one that shows the cluster developing in western Minnesota around 3 am and rumbling toward the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota between about 5 a.m. and 7 a.m. Saturday.

NOAA WRF model
NOAA WRF model 3 am to 8 am Saturday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The severe risk looks low with this possible storm cluster. But NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal risk for severe storms Saturday across most of Minnesota.

Severe weather risk areas Saturday
Severe weather risk areas Saturday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Saturday afternoon and evening will be sunny and summery, and probably storm-free.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday.
NOAA

Higher severe risk Sunday and Memorial Day

Heat and humidity will build Sunday and Memorial Day across Minnesota. Highs will push well into the 80s Sunday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday.
NOAA

Highs will approach the 90-degree mark on Memorial Day for parts of southern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday.
NOAA

Sunday’s severe risk elevates to enhanced across western Minnesota. The Twin Cities and much of eastern Minnesota are in the slight risk zone.

Severe weather risk areas Sunday
Severe weather risk areas Sunday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

There’s also a risk of severe storms for Memorial Day. The European model suggests an arc of strong storms moving through Minnesota Monday afternoon. The image below is for 7 p.m. Monday.

European model (ECMWF)
European model (ECMWF) output for 7 pm Memorial Day.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Have a great holiday weekend, but keep one eye out for possible severe weather watches and warnings.

Frigid water

The air will be warm and summery this weekend for the first time in months. But the water in Minnesota’s lakes and rivers is still frigid. Cold shock and gasp reflex are life-threatening if you fall into these frigid waters.

I know this first hand. I nearly drowned with a good friend in frigid waters on Lake Minnetonka in May when I was 20 years old. When I ran out of strength I was lucky that the lake bottom was about four feet deep and I could make it to shore. And I’m a strong swimmer.

Please wear your life jacket on the water this weekend. Let’s all get home safe to enjoy another summer.