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Excessive Heat warning until 8 pm; severe storms possible Wednesday

Temps soaring through the 90s, heat index near 100 degrees.

Heat ahead
Heat ahead.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Welcome to our 3rd day of 90-degree heat this year in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.

Temperatures are soaring through the 90s today across central and southern Minnesota. It’s already 93 degrees as of this post in the early afternoon.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures and dew points Tuesday at MSP Airport.
NOAA/FAA

We’ll top out somewhere in the mid to upper 90s across most of central and southern Minnesota today. An excessive heat warning is in effect until 8 pm this evening for the Twin Cities.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, and Hastings

316 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 103 expected.

* WHERE...Hennepin, Anoka, Ramsey, Washington, Carver, Scott and Dakota Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

Tropical air mass

Our heat is coming with a dose of deep tropical moisture. Dew points are around 70 degrees in eastern Minnesota today. you can see the tropical moisture plume over Minnesota Tuesday on NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution dew point map.

But watch the loop. See how a much drier and more comfortable air mass pushes in from the west on Wednesday? Dew points will fall into the 40s and 50s behind a cool front pushing through Minnesota later today and tonight.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model dew point loop between 1 pm Tuesday and 1 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

So this Tuesday's 90-degree heat spell is a one-day event. We catch a break from the heat and humidity as highs fall into the upper 70s Wednesday behind the front.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

Highs Thursday and Friday climb slowly through the 80s in southern Minnesota, so it won't be as hot as what we’re feeling today.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday.
NOAA

The heat will return this weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely again by Sunday and Monday.

Storm risk Wednesday

The front will stall just east of the Twin Cities Wednesday. A wave of rain and thunder will develop near the frontal zone Wednesday. Look for scattered storms to roll northeast through eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin down to Iowa Wednesday.

NOAA’s HRRR model favors morning and midday storms from southern Minnesota moving into Wisconsin during the day.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between 7 am and 7 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints an enhanced risk of severe weather Wednesday for Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota, and Iowa. A slight risk includes the southeast Twin Cities, with a marginal risk over most of the Twin Cities.

Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Stay tuned Wednesday for possible severe weather watches and warnings, A few storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

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